Exposure to Concurrent Heatwaves and Ozone Pollution and Associations with Mortality Risk: A Nationwide Study in China.

BACKGROUND: Concurrent extreme events are projected to occur more frequently under a changing climate. Understanding the mortality risk and burden of the concurrent heatwaves and ozone (O3) pollution may support the formulation of adaptation strategies and early warning systems for concurrent events in the context of climate change. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to estimate the mortality risk and excess deaths of concurrent heatwaves and O3 pollution across 250 counties in China. METHODS: We collected daily mortality, meteorological, and air pollution data for the summer (1 June to 30 September) during 2013-2018. We defined heatwaves and high O3 pollution days, then we divided the identified days into three categories: a) days with only heatwaves (heatwave-only event), b) days with only high O3 pollution (high O3 pollution-only event), and c) days with concurrent heatwaves and high O3 pollution (concurrent event). A generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson regression was used to estimate the risk of mortality associated with extreme events for each county. Then we conducted a random-effects meta-analysis to pool the county-specific estimates to derive the overall effect estimates. We used mixed-effects meta-regression to identify the drivers of the heterogeneity. Finally, we estimated the excess death attributable to extreme events (heatwave-only, high O3 pollution-only, and concurrent events) from 2013 to 2020. RESULTS: A higher all-cause mortality risk was associated with exposure to the concurrent heatwaves and high O3 pollution than exposure to a heatwave-only or a high O3 pollution-only event. The effects of a concurrent event on circulatory and respiratory mortality were higher than all-cause and nonaccidental mortality. Sex and age significantly impacted the association of concurrent events and heatwave-only events with all-cause mortality. We estimated that annual average excess deaths attributed to the concurrent events were 6,249 in China from 2017 to 2020, 5.7 times higher than the annual average excess deaths attributed to the concurrent events from 2013 to 2016. The annual average proportion of excess deaths attributed to the concurrent events in the total excess deaths caused by three types of events (heatwave-only events, high O3 pollution-only events, and concurrent events) increased significantly in 2017-2020 (31.50%; 95% CI: 26.73%, 35.53%) compared with 2013-2016 (9.65%; 95% CI: 5.67%, 10.81%). Relative excess risk due to interaction revealed positive additive interaction considering the concurrent effect of heatwaves and high O3 pollution. DISCUSSION: Our findings may provide scientific basis for establishing a concurrent event early warning system to reduce the adverse health impact of the concurrent heatwaves and high O3 pollution. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13790.

China's carbon-neutral policies will reduce short-term PM2.5-associated excess incidence of cardiovascular diseases.

China's carbon-neutral target could have benefits for ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5)-associated mortality. Although previous studies have researched such benefits, the potential impact on cardiovascular disease incidence burden is yet to be investigated thoroughly. Here, we first estimate the association between short-term PM2.5 exposure and the incidence of stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) via a case-crossover study before projecting future changes in short-term PM2.5-associated excess incidence across China from 2025 to 2060 under three different emission scenarios. We find that, compared to the 2015-2020 baseline, average PM2.5 concentrations nationwide in 2060 under SSP119 (an approximation of a carbon-neutral scenario) are projected to decrease by 81.07%. The short-term PM2.5-related excess incidence of stroke and CHD is projected to be reduced to 3,352 cases (95% confidence interval: 939, 5,738)-compared with 34,485 cases under a medium-emissions scenario (SSP245)-and is expected to be accompanied by a 95% reduction in the related economic burden. China's carbon-neutral policies are likely to bring health benefits for cardiovascular disease by reducing short-term PM2.5-related incidence burden.

Dust particulate matter increases pulmonary embolism onset: A nationwide time-stratified case-crossover study in China.

BACKGROUND: Particulate matter (PM) has been found to elevate the risk of pulmonary embolism (PE) onset. Among the contributors to PM, dust PM stands as the second natural source, and its emissions are escalating due to climate change. Despite this, information on the effect of dust PM on PE onset is scarce. Hence, this study aims to investigate the impacts of dust PM10, dust PM2.5-10, and dust PM2.5 on PE onset. METHODS: A nationwide time-stratified case-crossover study was conducted between 2015 and 2020, using data from 18,616 PE onset cases across 1,921 hospitals in China. The analysis employed a conditional logistic regression model to quantify the associations between dust PM10, dust PM2.5-10, and dust PM2.5 and PE onset. Furthermore, the study explored the time-distributed lag pattern of the effect of dust PM on PE development. Stratified analyses were performed based on sex, age, region, and season. RESULTS: Dust PM10, dust PM2.5-10, and dust PM2.5 exhibited significant health effects on PE onset, particularly concerning exposure on the same day. The peak estimates were observed at lag 01 day, with the odds ratio being 1.011 [95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.003, 1.019], 1.014 (95 % CI: 1.003, 1.026), and 1.039 (95 % CI: 1.011, 1.068), for a 10 µg/m3 increase in the concentration of dust PM10, dust PM2.5-10, and dust PM2.5, respectively. In addition, the study identified a higher risk of PE onset associated with dust PM exposure during the warm season than that in cool season, particularly for dust PM2.5. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this study suggest that short-term exposure to dust PM, particularly dust PM2.5, may trigger PE onset, posing a significant health threat. Implementing measures to mitigate dust PM emissions and protect patients with PE from dust PM exposure is imperative.

Protocol for estimating exposure to compound heat wave and ozone pollution under future climate change.

Here we describe the procedure for estimating exposure to the compound heatwave and ozone pollution under future climate scenarios. We first apply the daily-level temperature and ozone concentration across the world and perform bias correction by comparing the distribution of the modeled temperature and ozone concentration to the distribution of historical observation. Then we identify the heatwaves, ozone pollution events, and compound events. Finally, we combine the future exposure and population to identify the high-risk regions and populations. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Ban et al. (2022).1.

Traffic-related PM2.5 and its specific constituents on circulatory mortality: A nationwide modelling study in China.

BACKGROUND: Short-term fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure and increased circulatory mortality have been well documented. However, there are inconsistent findings on mortality effects of traffic-related pollutants from the perspective of sources or constituents. Few studies have examined such associations using source and constituents simultaneously, and even less are based on large-scale, nationally representative data. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive analysis to investigate source- and constituent-specific mortality effects due to traffic-related PM2.5 pollution in China. METHODS: We extracted daily mortality data in 280 counties from the China Disease Surveillance Points system (DSPs) from January 2013 to December 2018. Daily concentrations of traffic-related PM2.5 and specific constituents were simulated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The downscaling and adjustment methods were carried out to generate a refined exposure assessment. We estimated the circulatory mortality risk using a standard two-stage approach, combining generalized linear model (GLM) with a quasi-Poisson distribution and random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: We observed that traffic-related PM2.5 and specific constituents were significantly associated with increased circulatory mortality. An increase of interquartile range of traffic-related PM2.5, elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and nitrate (NO3-) were associated with elevated circulatory mortality risks of 1.80 % (95 % confidence interval, CI: 1.27, 2.33), 1.85 % (1.33, 2.37), 1.42 % (0.90, 1.94), and 1.10 % (0.55, 1.66) at 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days), respectively. We also found relatively high associations between traffic-related PM2.5 and EC exposures and cardiovascular mortality, and OC exposure and cerebrovascular mortality. Moreover, our stratified analysis demonstrated such mortality risks tended to be stronger in males, individuals age 65 years or older, and during the cold season. CONCLUSION: Our findings provided robust evidence on significant associations of traffic-related PM2.5 and specific constituents with circulatory mortality. Further emissions abatement from the transportation sector and corresponding pollutants should merit a particular focus in China.